earthquake forecasting2
Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard

Earthquakes are a major threat for society, and reliable forecast of the expected ground shaking caused by earthquakes (usually called "seismic hazard") is the primary scientific ingredient for any sound risk mitigation action. The research program under development at the Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences at the University of Naples, Federico II, is primarily focused on modelling the space and time evolution of the seismic sequences and the associated ground shaking for different forecasting time windows, from days to weeks to forecast the short-term evolution of seismic sequences, to years and decades for building code purposes.

Different kinds of modelling are explored, empirical, stochastic, physics-based and based on deep learning. The impact of this kind of modelling is twofold: it may provide innovative tools to decision makers for risk reduction purposes, and it allows scientists to test what they really know about the physical process which generate earthquakes.

We are actively working with the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability which provides an international infrastructure for a prospective, transparent and reproducible testing phase for any earthquake forecasting model.

earthquake forecasting2Some examples of weekly forecasts. (A) a few hours after the Amatrice earthquake and the M3.5+ earthquakes (blue-green circles) that occurred in the forecasting time window. (B) before the M5.9 earthquake (blue-green star) that occurred on October 26. (C) before the Norcia M6.5 earthquake (blue-green star) that occurred on October 30. (D) Forecast number 35, before the Campotosto M5.5 earthquake (blue-green star) that occurred on January 18.

earthquake forecasting4The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) international framework
 
earthquake forecasting3A preliminary result for the new long-term seismic hazard model for Italy (MPS19). The map reports the probability to exceed a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.1 g in the next 50 years.
 

Staff

Prof. Warner Marzocchi
Dr. Marcus Herrmann
Dr. Ester Piegari
Dr. Fabio Varchetta (PhD student)
Dr. Ester Manganiello (PhD student)

Active collaboration

Active collaborations with several colleagues at:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, University of Southern California, U.S. Geological Survey, University of Bristol, Engineering department University of Naples Federico II, GFZ Potsdam, GNS New Zealand, ETH Zurich, Stanford University.

Projects

The research program is partially funded by the European H2020 project RISE (start date Sept. 1, 2019), and by the Italian Department of Civil Protection.

Paleoantropologia Evoluzionistica e Paleoecologia

Paleoantropologia

La ricerca dipartimentale di Paleoantropologia ha come principale soggetto di studio l’evoluzione morfologica dei Primati, con particolare interesse per gli ominidi, che si pongono direttamente sulla linea evolutiva della nostra specie. La ricerca prende in esame strutture morfologiche quali la mandibola, il cranio o gli endocast della scatola cranica appartenenti a specie viventi ed estinte nell’ambito dei Primati analizzandoli in chiave evolutiva. Si occupa inoltre di identificare i pattern evolutivi che sono alla base delle differenze tra la nostra specie e gli altri gruppi di Primati. Nella ricerca vengono inoltre impiegati strumenti innovativi, come la computer grafica e la stampa in 3D, per ampliare la collezione di fossili appartenenti alla linea evolutiva della nostra specie. Questa collezione costituisce un valido supporto nell’ambito della ricerca e della didattica.

Paleontologia Evoluzionistica

La ricerca dipartimentale nell’ambito della Paleontologia Evoluzionistica si incentra sullo sviluppo di metodi filogenetici comparativi (PCM), al fine di conciliare lo studio dell’evoluzione della diversità fenotipica e tassonomica. Fondamentale a tale scopo è l’integrazione dell’informazione derivante dai fossili, che si rendono indispensabili per comprendere la reale storia evolutiva dei cladi. A partire dalle informazioni derivate dal record fossile è infatti possibile costruire e calibrare alberi filogenetici omnicomprensivi che si utilizzano nell’ambito dei PCM per descrivere o identificare pattern evolutivi. Lo studio e lo sviluppo di nuovi metodi si è infine tradotto nella produzione di software dedicati.

Paleo-macroecologia e paleoecologia

La ricerca dipartimentale nell’ambito della Paleo-macroecologia e della Paleoecologia riguarda lo studio e ricostruzione della distribuzione spaziale delle specie fossili e delle loro esigenze bioclimatiche al fine di comprendere le dinamiche evolutive delle comunità del passato in risposta a vari disturbi ambientali. Questo tipo di ricerca si avvale dei più moderni strumenti analitici e predittivi, quali algoritmi di Machine Learning e statistica Bayesiana, che attualmente rappresentano l’avanguardia nelle discipline di conservazione e che puntano a predire l’evoluzione del range geografico di una specie focale in vari scenari futuri e passati, in risposta a repentini cambiamenti climatici e ai disturbi antropogenici. A questo tipo di ricerca si affianca anche una fase di sviluppo
Geomorphology and geology of the quaternary

Main research topics:

  • Tectonic geomorphology and relief evolution, coastal geomorphology and marine terraces, karst geomorphology, active tectonics ( Alessandra Ascione, Prof. Nicoletta Santangelo, Dr Ettore Valente; Dr Ciro Cerrone)
  • Applied geomorphology: flash flood hazard, geomorphological mapping for territorial planning, geosites, geomorphosites and geotourism (Prof. Nicoletta Santangelo, Dr Ettore Valente)
  • Coastal and underwater geomorphology, underwater geoarcheology, geomorphology of urban areas (Prof. Carlo Donadio)
  • Morphodynamics of coastal and transitional environments, coastal managment, coastal hazard, coastal mapping for territorial planning, coastal geoarcheology (Prof. Micla Pennetta)
  • Geoarcheology: palaeoenvironmental and palaeogeographical reconstructions in archeological sites; man/ environment interactions during the last millennia in Southern Italy (Dr Elda Russo Ermolli, Dr Valentino Di Donato)
  • Environmental and oceanographic evolution of Mediterranean sea during the Quaternary: integrated palaeo-ecologic analysis (pollens and foraminefera) of marine, transitional and continental stratigraphic successions, development and applications of computational analysis methodologies for paleoclimatic reconstructions (Dr Elda Russo Ermolli, Dr Valentino Di Donato)

Main collaborations:

 

National and Capodistrian University of Athens – Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment

CEREGE - Université d’Aix-Marseille

CIRCE, Caserta

Département Préhistoire, Museum National Histoire Naturelle, Paris

Dip. di Ingegneria Geotecnica ed ambientale (DIGA), Università di Napoli Federico II

ISMAR-CNR, Napoli

Lehigh University, Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bethlehem, PA

MARUM, Bremen

Orto botanico di Napoli, Università di Napoli Federico II

Università Roma Tre - Laboratorio di Geochimica

Universitad Politécnica de Madrid

Universitat de Girona - Grup de Recerca en Estadística i Anàlisi de Dades Composicionals

Université de Lausanne - Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics

University of California, Berkeley

University of Patras, Dept. of Geology

Università Parthenope, Napoli

geomorfologia2

Palaeogeographic sketches showing the main evolutionary stages of the Campania and Sele plains along the Quaternary.

 

geomorfologia3Paleogeographic and paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the S. Eufumia plain during Greek and Roman time

 

geomorfologia4

Submerged roman channel and arch

 

geomorfologia5

DEM morphometric analysis: rivers longitudinal profiles (Volturno river catchment)

geomorfologia6

Alluvial fan flooding susceptibility map  (Sala Consilina, SA)

 

 

 

Sedimentary Geology

Sedimentary rocks preserve the footprint of natural processes acting at the earth surface. They are a unique source of information on the evolution of the Earth System during the recent and deep geological past. Moreover, they provide important clues on “normal” (periodic) and “catastrophic” (episodic) past events, and therefore, crucial hints for the study of modern geo-hazards like submarine landslide-related tsunamis. Sedimentary processes ultimately control the intrinsic mechanical and petrophysical properties of sedimentary rocks, with important implications in terms of socio-economic impacts (e.g. hydrocarbon, geothermal and groundwater exploration and exploitation, geological storage, waste disposal, etc.). In this framework, their understanding is crucial for every surface and subsurface human activity. The sedimentary geology research group has a wide expertise on the sedimentology and stratigraphy of both carbonate and siliciclastic rock assemblages, integrating field and lab studies at different scales of observation. The natural laboratories used in these field-oriented studies, and related educational activities, are the different basin systems preserved in orogenic belts such as the Southern and Northern Apennines, the Dinarids, the Hellenides, Svalbard, Utah, Pyrenees, Sinai, Betic Cordillera, Iberian Chain, and Cyprus. 

Faculty members working in this research group

Alessandro Iannace, Mariano Parente, Kei Ogata

Main topics of research:

- Stratigraphy and facies evolution of Meso-Cenozoic carbonates of the peri-Adriatic area

- Genesis and distribution of dolomites in the carbonate platform and basinal successions of the southern Apennines

- Petrography, geochemistry and genesis of calcareous tufa and travertines of southern Italy

- The record of oceanic anoxic events and ocean acidification in the Mesozoic carbonate platforms of southern Italy

- Chronostratigraphic calibration of carbonate platform biostratigraphy by isotope stratigraphy (carbon and strontium isotopes).

- Stratigraphical and sedimentological analysis of siliciclastic sediment gravity flows and mass transport deposits, and comparison with recent analogs;

- Analysis of deformation structures related to processes of gravitational instability and relationships between shallow tectonics and siliciclastic sedimentation;

- Syn-depositional deformation and petrophysical properties evolution in poorly to well lithified sediments as a tool for constraining ancient fluid flow in siliciclastic reservoirs;

Recent and actively funded projects:

-               Sr isotope stratigraphy and structural analysis of the Miocene shallow-water carbonates sealing the forebulge unconformity in the central-southern Apennine. 2017-2019. University of Naples Federico II. PI: M. Parente

-               “Biota Resilience to global change: biomineralization of planktic and benthic calcifiers in the past, present and future”. 2019-2022. PRIN MIUR. Local PI: M. Parente

-               Trias North – Reconstructing the Triassic northern Barents shelf. 2015-2018. Research Council of Norway, Edison Norway, Lundin Norway, RWE Dea Norge, Statoil, Tullow Oil. Local PI: K. Ogata (https://www.mn.uio.no/geo/english/research/projects/triasnorth/index.html)

-               Injectites and Sedimentary Intrusions in the Mesozoic sedimentary record of Svalbard (ISIMS). 2018-2019. Svalbard Science Forum. PI: K. Ogata (https://www.researchinsvalbard.no/project/8289)

 

Research labs

SEM, XRF, XRD, ICP-OES, TIMS

sedimentary geology

 

sedimentary geology2

 

sedimentary geology3

 

Subsurface geological modelling 
We focus our research on fundamental understanding of processes involved in the generation of Geo-resources, which span from hydrocarbon exploration to geological storage. We continuously explore new methods for the discovery and exploitation of those resources, and on the environmental factors leading to geological hazard and associated risk. Within this framework our group share a renowned expertise on Carbonate reservoir and exploration within fold and thrust belt but recently expanded its activity to explore the tectonic evolution of rifted continental margins, pre salt reservoir, siliciclastic stratigraphy and methodologies related to geological sequestration. We have expertise spanning from field structural geology, stratigraphy, sedimentology, seismic interpretation and processing, organic geochemistry and sedimentary petrology. Across the recent years our research group received research funding from various earth resource companies (including ENI, Shell, OMV, Edison) to explore areas like the peri-adriatic zone, Southern Apennine, Iran, Greece, and the pre salt reservoir in Brazil. As a group we receive support from service company through academic license of advanced software (Schlumberger, Halliburton, Geoteric). We also have long lived expertise on leading field trip and organizing field training for oil and gas companies across field analogue for carbonate and dolomitized reservoir and fractured traps and delivering training for subsurface data interpretation.

Faculty members working in this research group: 
Alessandro Iannace, Mariano Parente, Stefano Tavani, David Iacopini, Kei Ogata, Giovanni Camanni

Recent and actively funded projects: 
- Integrated study of petroleum systems in Mediterranean and Middle East fold and thrust belts. 2016-2018. Edison/Exploration & Production. S.Mazzoli (now at the University of Camerino).
- An integrated study of petroleum systems and hydrocarbon potential of Triassic-Jurassic successions in the Zagros Mountains of the Lurestan Area, W-NW Iran. 2016-2018. National Iranian Oil company. S.Mazzoli (now at the University of Camerino).
- An integrated study of the potential reservoir rocks of the Ionian zone  of the Hellenides (western Greece). 2017-2018 - Hellenic Petroleum and Edison/Exploration & Production. M. Parente
- Reservoir characterization of the Mucuri units, pre salt Unit, Campos Basin. 2016-2018. UFRGS-Shell. D. Iacopini.
- Distribution and quality of the Aptian intraclastic carbonate reservoir, Pre salt unit, Santos Basin. 2021-2024. UFRGS. D. Iacopini
- Thematic Network on Arctic Geology. 2017-2020. UArctic cooperative. K. Ogata (https://www.uarctic.org/organization/thematic-networks/arctic-geology/AllRelated#; http://site.uit.no/arcticgeology/circum-arctic-geology-for-everyone/
- Multi-physical Detection of Along-fault CO2 Migration through cap rock shales. 2019-2023. Norwegian CCS Research Centre (NCCS) and Svalbard Science Forum. K. Ogata (https://www.researchinsvalbard.no/project/9325)

Research labs  
XRF, SEM, XRD, Petrophysics lab, Seismic Workstation
georisorse
 
georisorse4
 
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